Uncertainty Reigns Amidst Tariff Whiplash and Political Crosscurrents

Recent developments in global trade policy, most notably U.S. tariff announcements, have introduced a heightened level of uncertainty for private company transactions, particularly those with cross-border exposure. The U.S. President’s Liberation Day speech, where he revealed a new round of tariffs without a clear economic rationale, has left investors and businesses alike grappling with what many now refer to as the “TACO trade” an acronym capturing the sentiment that “Trump Always Chickens Out.”

Indeed, the pattern of announcing tariffs and then scaling them back, delaying them, or abandoning them altogether has created a volatile environment. Many private equity funds and strategic buyers we work with continue to view the President’s tariff stance as more posturing than policy. While new tariffs were announced for specific countries and sectors, the general consensus is that actual implementation may fall far short of the sweeping measures outlined in the Liberation Day chart. Some regions may see tariffs materialize, while others may escape unscathed. Nonetheless, critical sectors such as steel, auto parts, and potentially lumber remain under pressure, creating tangible risks for affected businesses.